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DB Insight

Is Engagement Rate a Reliable Predictor of Social Media Growth?

We extracted the following metrics from CreatorDB’s database to address the most pressing question in the influencer marketing industry:

“Can Engagement Rate Predict Social Media Growth?“

Where 0.0 is truly random and for some sort of correlation we would need < -0.5 or > 0.5, and -1 or 1 means perfect correlation.

Using followers/subscribers to represent growth

10.000 to 100.000:

  • Youtube: NO, Correlation: -0.005
  • TikTok:  NO, Correlation: -0.002
  • Instagram: NO, Correlation: -0.02

More than 100.000:

  • Youtube: NO, Correlation: -0.015
  • TikTok:  NO, Correlation: -0.001
  • Instagram: NO, Correlation: -0.02

More than 1.000.000:

  • Youtube: NO, Correlation: -0.03
  • TikTok:  NO, Correlation: 0.004
  • Instagram: NO, Correlation: -0.009

Key Takeaway

The analysis indicates a very weak correlation between engagement rate and growth (represented by followers/subscribers) across all social media platforms and follower categories, suggesting that engagement rate is not a reliable predictor of growth.

Explanation

The data analysis conducted on the correlation between engagement rate and growth across various social media platforms has provided some interesting insights. The results indicate that there is a very weak correlation between engagement rate and growth, which is represented by the number of followers or subscribers. This weak correlation was observed across all social media platforms and follower categories.

Upon examining the correlation coefficients, it was observed that for most platforms and follower categories, the correlation is close to zero or slightly negative. This indicates that there is almost no relationship between engagement rate and growth, and in some cases, there may even be a slight negative correlation. This suggests that engagement rate alone may not be a reliable predictor of growth on social media platforms.

However, a slightly different trend was observed for TikTok accounts with more than 1,000,000 followers. In this case, a very weak positive correlation between engagement rate and growth was observed. Although the correlation coefficient was not significant, it does suggest that there may be some relationship between engagement rate and growth for highly popular TikTok accounts.

Read more:
TikTok Marketing Success Story: How Survivor.io Achieved Six-Times Revenue Growth to 100 Million

Overall, while engagement rate is an important metric for measuring audience engagement and content quality, it may not be a good indicator of growth on social media platforms. Other factors such as content type, audience demographics, and platform algorithms may play a more significant role in determining growth on social media platforms. Therefore, it is essential for creators and brands to focus on a holistic approach to social media marketing rather than relying solely on engagement rate as a measure of success.

Learn more:
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